Looking Ahead

I'm not going to comment on the elections, mostly because they speak for themselves. Specifically, they say "AAAAARGH WE HATE YOU!!!!!" That's fine. America has a long and rich tradition of such elections. FDR was elected in a "we hate you" election back in 1932. Ditto for William McKinley in 1896.

No, what I really want to talk about is 2012. Hey, wait, come back! You're sick of elections, I know. So is everybody not named Chris Matthews. But you got to take a look at this new CNN poll.

What does it tell us? First, it tells us that nominating Sarah Palin would be a disaster for Republicans. She doesn't stand a Blue Devil's chance in Chapel Hill of winning. Obama is at the absolute lowest point in his presidency. His allies just got booted out of Congress. His poll numbers are abysmal. His media supporters have turned on him. And he still leads Palin 52-44. That's no small number.

Second, despite much happy talk by Republicans, Obama seems safe from a primary challenge. 73 percent of Democrats want him renominated. That's probably enough to scare away Russ Feingold, Howard Dean, and any other potential spoiler. Obama will get a primary challenger regardless, but it's likely to be a retired electrician from Wyoming who thinks the CIA has implanted a chip in his head.

Third, the GOP field is open. True, the big four--Palin, Huckabee, Romney, and Gingrich--are the only candidates with double-digit support. But their combined support comes to only 67%. One-third of Republicans pick "none of the above." Also remember that most of this "support" is name recognition, so the "undecided" camp is probably closer to half the GOP electorate.

What does that mean? It means come on in, Tim Pawlenty, the water's fine. The more the merrier, Mitch Daniels. Join the party, Chris Christie. The fun begins now.